Home > Uncategorized > Social Media Polling Data Suggests Baker would Beat Patrick In 2010 Massachusetts Governor Election

Social Media Polling Data Suggests Baker would Beat Patrick In 2010 Massachusetts Governor Election

Even though the 2010 Massachusetts governor race moved from leaning to Democrat to tossup, incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick still has the upper hand in the race according to opinion polls. The latest Rasmussen Reports (27th, October, 2010)which telephoned likely voters in the state found that incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick had 46% support, while the Republican challenger Charles Bakers got 44% of the vote.

However, in recent days there are signs that the governor race is tightening as the poll tracker shows below. Polls give the Republicans an edge of voter enthusiasm, especially when they urge people to look at the high unemployment that was 21,000 Massachusetts jobs lost last month alone. Dismal public view of the economy is the main problem facing Democrats, including Massachusetts current governor Deval Patrick. A past failure makes Republican not to overlook the importance of some voting groups who helped the Democrats win two year ago. They include women and young people, and also they are heavy users of social media. Therefore, In terms of social media, I’m seeking to find out any indication of the result of this governor race based on online election campaign and social media metrics. 

Source: Realclearpolitics- election 2010  


The findings were tricky. All general landscape showed that Deval Patrick was still leading over his challenger Charlie Baker. Nevertheless, the more I dug into the detail metric the more I found suggested the momentum of Baker is stronger with the tendency to beat the incumbent governor Deval Patrick.      

Google Search Result vs. Google Trend

Google Search result can always represent the popularity and preference of candidates in elections. A quick search showed that Deval Patrick got the run upon in Massachusetts. However, Google Trend indicated that the attention paid on Baker among Google users has skyrocketed since Sep in 2010 with a strong momentum of surpassing his opponent.

  All Result Video Image News
Deval Patrick 560,000 376 54,000 1,690
Charlie Baker 218,000 370 149,000 1,030

 Alexa Rankings:

Alexa Rankings is an effective tool to tell the traffic rank and audiences landscape of websites. Again on Alexa Rankings, devalpatrick.com (Deval Patrick’s website) has advantage in general traffic rank over charliebaker2010.com (Charlie Baker’s website). But when looking carefully into the audience analysis, it was found out that Devalpatrick.com has an Alexa traffic rank of 653,326 with about 20% of visits to the site are referred by search engines. While Charliebaker2010.com is relatively popular among users in the city of Boston (where it is ranked #27,609), and search engines refer about 29% of visits to it. Both websites’ visitors spend approximately two minutes on the site during each visit. But the difference is that visitors to Charliebaker2010.com view an average of 2.3 unique pages per day, indicating the visitors of Charliebaker2010.com were people who were loyal to Charlie Baker in the way of understanding, following and supporting him online. Therefore, the traffic rank of Charliebaker2010.com as 501,769 meant more than that of devalpatrick.com as 653,326.

devalpatrick.com (Deval Patrick)

charliebaker2010.com (Charlie Baker)

Social Media Tools:

Online networking on social media always implies a personal relationship between candidates and their supporters. An active engagement can sway and influence voters on a mass scale. Obviously, Deval Patrick is leading on twitter with much more followers and lists. But an opposite finding was shown by looking into the number of facebook fans and the metrics of twitter volume in the past week. A reasonable explanation of the contradictory results is the current governor position over years has been accumulating the attention and follows for Deval Patrick, but doesn’t guarantee the favorability.

It’s definitely a tight race,” Vercellotti said. “It’s still anybody’s game at this point.” Timothy L. Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and director of the polling institute at Western New England College in Springfield, said the governor’s contest is too close to call. Opinion polls and political pundits had claimed the 2010 Massachusetts governor race a dead heat. But online marketing and social media metrics has already foretold a subrogation if you believe that momentum is everything.

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